Welcome to our Weekly Rand Review for 22 August 2016, where we take a look at how things unfolded last week and give you our thoughts for the week ahead.
A very up and down week for those involved in Rand/Dollar business, as we saw the Rand range-trading for most of the week, strengthening down almost to the 13.20 mark, before bouncing back up to test the 13.50 upside of the range on Friday. This morning has seen a break higher, pushing above 13.60.
Panic stations or just a temporary correction...?
That is the question on everyone's lips.
Maybe we can get some indication as we look back over the week's movements...
How It Happened (15-19 Aug 2016)
Our outlook last Monday morning (see below - click to enlarge) showed that the Rand was topping out shortly, with some more strength due in the next few days.
Click to enlarge
We saw exactly that on Monday, as 13.48 was the high for the day, as the Rand steadily strengthened strongly throughout the morning and then afternoon.
By the time business closed for the day, the Rand was at a very solid level, well under 13.30 to the Dollar!
It had not pushed quite as far as on the previous week Thursday, but was showing very good signs as it followed our forecast direction.
Tuesday provided further good movement throughout the morning, and in mid afternoon, a low of R13.207/$ was hit, as positivity continued to grow throughout South Africa.
However, after touching that low, the Rand turned on its heels and began to steadily weaken once again. Come late evening, it was sitting closer to 13.40 again, as it continued to weaken.
This same trend followed onwards through Wednesday as well, reaching its peak on Wednesday evening of R13.54/$...!
However... At that, with news of the DA gaining more than 50% of the votes across the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan via a multi-party coalition, the Rand plummeted! It gained 20c in the remaining few hours of the evening, and continued to move back under 13.30 on Thursday morning.
Thursday was our forecast day once again, and the outlook showed (see below - click to enlarge) that the Rand was now expected to have topped out in the short term, and some further strength would hopefully be seen.
Click to enlarge
As sometimes is the case with Elliott wave patterns, the highest probability wave pattern does not always play out (humans are not THAT predictable!)
It did move down, but only as far as R13.25/$, before climbing right up again. Steady weakening saw it hit above R13.50 on Friday morning, as Oil price hikes were said to have affected the markets, due to the gain of 25% this past week..
But then we saw a move back down into the range to end with the Rand more or less where it was at the start of the week.
Economic Confusion Reigns Supreme throughout SA
For those still looking to the news for direction, the up and down week had economists stumbling backwards, then forwards then sideways, trying to make sense of it all.
Most have no clear idea of what is really going to be happening, which is shown so clearly in these sequential headlines over the week:
Monday: Rand loses ground despite signs SA will avoid a recession
Tuesday: Risky rand resumes rally
Wednesday: Rand loses steam on signs US Fed might hike rates
Thursday: Rand goes below R13.30/$, but when will the party end?
Friday: Oil price surge dents rand rally
If it has not been clear to you before, then it really should be now, as each and every headline appears to conflict the last!
That is not to say that they are always wrong, but they just do not use a scientific based, objective system, which means their predictions are mainly luck of the draw, if they are correct.
We cannot profess to get our forecasts 100% correct, every single time. But what we can promise, is:
Gut-feel and human emotion cannot be trusted. Scientific-based,objective forecasts can be.
The Week Ahead (22-26 August 2016)
Early movement on Monday saw the Rand climb to back over the the R13.60 mark, causing some edginess in the market. This week may just be one of the most crucial ones we have had this month, with a long term view due to either be invalidated or confirmed, in the coming few days...
There are some economic events to watch out for... All of which we have neatly documented on our website for our subscribers. If you have any short term exchanging which needs done, I would advise you to keep a very close eye on these events.
For this reason, we expect the forecast we published this morning to hold steady.
For those of you who are not subscribed to our forecasts already, if you have any Forex involvement you need to have a game plan. Otherwise you are taking pot shots in the dark. If you have not already, get subscribed to our free trial today, to see what a difference and saving we can make.
As always, I would love to hear your comments and feedback - please leave a comment below.
To your success~