Welcome to another issue of our Weekly Rand Review — as we roar into December!
It was another satisfying week for Rand bulls...
...and for those following our forecasts, as the local unit pushed through R17/$ and kept going, touching R16.90 on Friday morning — right inside our target zone of R17.09-R16.84...
...not validated yet (we need to see the reversal), but very much on track.
The week's gains came despite — or perhaps because of — complete chaos in US labor data. One report showed the worst private payroll numbers since March 2023. Another showed jobless claims at their lowest since September 2022. Make it make sense.
Meanwhile, the Fed is about to decide on interest rates next week... without official jobs data. The government shutdown delayed Non-Farm Payrolls until December 16th — so the world's most powerful central bank will set monetary policy essentially flying blind.
And the Rand? It shrugged and rallied 17 cents.
Let's see how it all happened...
Key Moments (1-5 December 2025)
These were some of the major headlines and events over the past five days:
- 📊 SA Q3 GDP Beats Expectations: Economy grew 0.5% QoQ, 2.1% YoY (vs 1.8% forecast) — 8th consecutive quarter of growth, best annual rate since Q3 2022
- 🏦 Fed Flies Blind Into Rate Cut: Conflicting labor data (ADP -32K vs claims at 3-year low) hasn't shaken 89% odds of a 25bp cut Dec 10-11
- 🚫 NFP Delayed Again: Non-Farm Payrolls pushed to December 16 due to government shutdown backlog
- 💪 Rand Hits Best Since Feb 2023: Local unit touched R16.90/$ Friday — inside our forecast target zone
Monday: Quiet Start, Steady Gains 📉
The Rand opened the week at R17.11/$ and was immediately under pressure, testing weaker to R17.16 in early trade...
...but the local unit found its feet mid-morning and began clawing back lost ground.
By lunchtime, we'd pushed back through R17.10 and kept going, touching R17.04 — the day's best — before settling to close at R17.07/$. A solid 4c gain to kick off December.
Not much on the local calendar to drive things. US manufacturing data showed ISM PMI at 48.2 — the 9th consecutive month of contraction — but markets had largely priced that in.
Tuesday: GDP Day Delivers 📊
Tuesday opened at R17.07/$ and saw early weakness push the pair up to test R17.15...
...but the Rand held firm ahead of the main event: Q3 GDP figures from Stats SA.
The numbers landed mid-morning — 0.5% QoQ and 2.1% YoY, comfortably beating the 1.8% consensus. That 2.1% annual rate is the best since Q3 2022.
Not spectacular — but steady with eight consecutive quarters of growth now, with trade and tourism (+1.0%) and mining (+2.3%) leading the way.
The Rand's reaction? Pretty muted, actually.
We held around R17.07-R17.08 for most of the session, closing at R17.08/$ — essentially flat on the day, but consolidating Monday's gains.
Wednesday: ADP Chaos Sparks Rand Rally 💥
Wednesday was where things got interesting...
...and by interesting, I mean confusing.
The Rand opened at R17.08/$ and initially drifted weaker, testing R17.14 in morning trade.
Then came the ADP Employment Report with a shocker...
...US private payrolls FELL by 32,000 jobs in November.
That's not a typo. While economists expected +40,000, the actual number was negative — the worst reading since March 2023. Small businesses shed 120,000 jobs alone.
The market's reaction was swift — the Rand punched through R17.00 for the first time in weeks, touching R17.0034 before pulling back slightly to close at R17.03/$...
...a 5c gain on the day, and suddenly we were knocking on sub-17 territory.
And in other news...
Fed Flying Blind Into Rate Decision 🏦
The Fed finds itself in an unusual position heading into next week's rate decision...
...it has to set policy without official employment data.
The October and November Non-Farm Payrolls releases were delayed by the government shutdown (1 Oct-12 Nov), and the next NFP won't land until 16 December — six days AFTER the Fed announces its decision.
Despite this data vacuum, markets are pricing an 89% probability of a 25 basis point cut (see CME FedWatch).
That would take the Fed Funds target to 3.50%-3.75%. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both expect the cut, though BofA notes this is "the most divided committee in recent memory."
Adding to the intrigue: speculation that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may replace Jerome Powell in May. Hassett is seen as more dovish, which could mean more aggressive easing ahead.
As for our view, we don't believe the Fed is flying blind at all. In fact, we covered this in the inaugural issue of our Market Demystifier report...
...and we take the liberty to include a chart (see lower down) that clearly shows them what margin they have to cut rates.
Moody's Keeps SA Unchanged 📋
Closer to home, Moody's delivered its South Africa rating review on Friday night — and kept things unchanged.
The agency maintained its Ba2 rating with a stable outlook, acknowledging reform progress in energy and logistics but flagging structural constraints like ageing infrastructure and a weak labor market.
Some economists called it overly cautious. "They shouldn't just look in the rearview mirror," said Citadel's Maarten Ackerman, noting that S&P already upgraded SA last month. The Rand had largely priced this in — no fireworks either way.
Thursday: Breaking Through R17 ⚡
Thursday opened at R17.03/$ with the market still digesting Wednesday's ADP shock...
...and it wasn't done yet.
A brief test higher to R17.07 was quickly rejected, and then came the next data point: US Initial Jobless Claims.
Wait, what? Claims dropped to 191,000 — the lowest since September 2022. One day after ADP showed the worst payroll losses in nearly two years, claims data suggests employers are holding onto workers like never before.
The contradiction is jarring. ADP says small businesses are hemorrhaging jobs, while claims data says almost nobody is filing for unemployment. Both can't be right. Or perhaps they're measuring different things at different times.
Either way, the Fed has to make a call next week with this mess of signals.
The Rand didn't seem to care about the confusion — it pushed through R17.00 and kept going, touching R16.94 before closing at R16.98/$...
...another 5c stronger, and now firmly in uncharted territory for 2025.
USDZAR touched R16.90 — strongest since February 2023
Friday: Target Zone Touched 🎯
Friday morning brought even more Rand strength...
...with USDZAR opening at R16.98/$ and barely pausing for breath.
The pair pushed straight through to R16.9004 in early trade — the strongest level since February 2023, and now firmly inside our forecast target zone of R17.09-R16.84.
The rest of the session saw some consolidation, with the pair drifting back to test R16.99 before settling to close around R16.96/$...
...a weekly gain of approximately 15 cents (0.86%), and our forecast looking very much on track, but waiting to be validated.
We're now watching for reversal signals. If the Rand holds here and turns, that's a validated call...
...if it pushes through R16.84, we'll need to reassess.
And that was the wrap
The Market Demystifyer
Global stock markets recovered last week from their meltdown the week prior. And although we have entered into the target area shown in the chart below (included in our inaugural issue), the warning signals are still all there.
And this is what we said as the market entered the 47425-56500 target area:
"US stock are dancing on the celiing—We’ve seen this pattern before: asset prices levitating even as underlying fundamentals deteriorate. It’s the final rally before reality intervenes.
This is like the last of the ripples … on the last wave running up the beach … of a high spring tide…"
And sure enough, it was just that, as the Dow Jones ran higher to hit a record 48432 just a week and a half later...
...before plunging spectacularly
Here is your chance to see what else we covered in the free inaugural issue:
If you want to cut through the noise ...
...and understand what's really moving markets
👉Grab Your Free Copy of The Market Demystifyer
Some of what you will find inside apart from detail on US stocks.·
- US Corp LLC framework — $37 trillion debt analysis (page 3)
- Gold/Bitcoin/DXY cycle forecasts with targets (pages 8-12)
- Why the Fed doesn't control interest rates (page 13)
Plus much more...
No jargon. No predictions pulled from thin air. Just cycle structure + sentiment data + what it means for YOUR positioning. As well as simple layman's explanation of complex economics, and what this means for you. Grab Your Free Copy
Volatility & Risk Analysis
Actually a less volatile week despite us hitting those 3-year best against the dollar:
- Open to Close Move: The week opened at R17.11/$ Monday morning and closed Friday afternoon at R16.96/$ — a 15c (0.86%) strengthening.
- Average Daily Range: ~11c (0.6%)
Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R110,000 - Maximum Single-Day Move: ~13c (0.8%) on Wednesday
Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R130,000 - Weekly Range: 26c (R16.90 low to R17.16 high) — 1.5% swing
Risk per $1 Million Exposure: R260,000
For importers, the push below R17 offers levels not seen in almost two years. For exporters, hedging decisions just got more interesting — do you lock in here, or wait to see if the Rand reverses from our target zone?
The Week Ahead (December 8-12, 2025)
SA: Current Account (Q3), Mining Production, Manufacturing Production
US: FOMC Rate Decision (Dec 10-11), CPI Inflation (Dec 10), PPI (Dec 11), Initial Jobless Claims
EU: ECB Rate Decision (Dec 12), EU GDP Final
What to Watch: All eyes on the Fed's December 10-11 meeting. Will they cut despite the data chaos? And if they do, how does Powell frame the decision without NFP data to reference?
The ECB follows on December 12 with their own rate decision. SA's current account data could provide additional Rand direction.
UNDERSTANDING WHAT MOVES MARKETS
This past week is again a timely reminder that negative news does not always mean Rand weakness...
...in fact, this was exactly the opposite where there was plenty of negativity coming from across the Atlantic with some significant repercussions, yet the Rand just shrugged it off.
Bottomline: The trigger is never the whole story...
...direction comes from understanding the underlying forces.
If you're tired of being whipsawed by headlines and want to understand what's really driving markets...
...The Market Demystifyer cuts through the noise:
👉Grab Your Free Copy of The Market Demystifyer
Enjoy - and please let me know what you think!
Until next week, stay sharp out there!
To your success~
James Paynter
P.S. If you find value from The Market Demystifyer, we're running a founders special for this for a limited time, which you can grab at $19/mth, $52/qtr or $190/year for a limited time.
P.P.S. Managing year-end forex exposure? Give me a shout on 087 551 2848 or on Whatsapp – with Rand volatility picking up, proper positioning matters more than ever.
Every forex strategy has an inherent risk...
...but a fixed or arbitrary strategy guarantees it!
Because currency markets move in cycles...
...and so should your forex strategy.
Flying Blind Is Costly
This week proved once again that markets move in cycles, not linear economist logic.
While mainstream analysts were celebrating Tuesday's Dow record, our forecast system was already signaling the Rand would push through R17 before reversing...
...and it delivered, hitting R16.95 - dead centre of our predicted 17.08-16.89 range...
...before losing 25 cents in a classic reversal.
That's not luck.
That's systematic forecasting based on a combination of sentiment cycles, Elliott Wave, momentum, wave ratios & relationship studies, momentum and supply & demand...
...the same system that's kept us and our clients ahead of the curve for years.
Want to see where the Rand is headed next?
To get a look at the latest forecasts, use the link below:
Click here to view the latest forecasts
If you have any questions or feedback, please leave them below.
To your success~
James Paynter
P.S. Having a rough time with the market's moves? Feel free to book a call. I would love to see how we could help with your present strategy - and save you some time, stress and money in the process.
Got any questions? Here's what to do:
2. Call us on 087 551 2848
3. Chat with us using our Whatsapp chat
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