Not every week gives you a clean story...
...but this week did.
It opened under pressure. Trump’s new 15% global tariff — announced under emergency powers after last week’s Supreme Court ruling struck down his previous IEEPA tariffs — came into effect on Monday morning. Markets opened risk-off. Emerging market currencies, including the Rand, felt it.
Then came Wednesday.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2026 Budget Speech — and it was better than most expected. No VAT increase. No personal or corporate tax hikes. And the headline figure that the market had been waiting years to hear: South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stabilise for the first time in 17 years.
USD/ZAR moved from R15.97 to a low of R15.83 in a matter of hours.
By week’s end, the Rand opened at R16.05 and is closing around R15.97 — roughly 8 cents stronger. On a week with Trump’s tariffs, a record-length State of the Union address, and hot US inflation data, that’s a significant outcome.
Here’s how each day played out...
(Quick note before we begin: I was wrapping this up as the Rand closed on Friday afternoon. Then Friday evening happened. …The weekend had other plans. Full story in the After the Bell section below — worth reading before anything else this week.)
Key Moments (23–27 February 2026)
These were some of the major headlines and events over the past five days:
💥 Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Takes Effect (Mon 23 Feb): Section 122 tariff on all imports raised to the statutory 15% ceiling — effective Monday. Replaces the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court last Friday. All countries, including South Africa.
🇺🇸 Trump Delivers SOTU — Longest in History (Tue 24 Feb): State of the Union address doubles down on the tariff agenda. No major new trade deal announcements near-term. US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) beats at 91.2.
📊 SA Budget: Debt Stabilising for First Time in 17 Years (Wed 25 Feb): Finance Minister Godongwana’s 2026 Budget delivers no VAT increase (R20B planned increase withdrawn), no income or corporate tax hikes, and a credible primary surplus path. USD/ZAR drops from R15.97 to a week low of R15.8305.
📈 Post-Budget Retracement (Thu 26 Feb): Markets digest Wednesday’s move. USD/ZAR trades a 17.2-cent range as traders find the new equilibrium. Widest intraday range of the week.
🌡 US PCE Inflation — Hot (Fri 27 Feb): January 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures index: core PCE at 3.0%. Crushes near-term Fed rate cut expectations. USD/ZAR holds below R16.00 despite the data — Budget sentiment providing a floor.
⚠️ After the Bell — Operation “Epic Fury” (Fri 27 Feb, post-close): After the Rand closed on Friday afternoon, joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran began Friday evening. Khamenei was killed. Iran fired back — missiles and drones across seven countries in the region. USD/ZAR opened Monday morning 21 cents higher. …If you had an open USD exposure, that was an overnight move. Full detail — and what it means for your exposures — in the After the Bell section.
🟡 Monday, 23 February — Tariffs Take Effect
Monday opened under the shadow of Trump’s tariffs...
...but the Rand handled it better than you might expect.
Following last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional, Trump moved quickly. By Saturday, he had announced a new 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — the statutory ceiling under that provision. Effective Monday 23 February.
For South Africa, the 30% IEEPA tariff that had been applied since last year was gone — replaced by a 15% global rate. A lower headline number, but the uncertainty hasn’t cleared. Section 122 tariffs carry their own legal exposure: they’re supposed to be limited to 150 days, and the underlying balance-of-payments justification is contested.
What was notable on Monday wasn’t the direction of the move — it was the modesty of it.
Despite the tariff headlines, USD/ZAR traded in a narrow 11.0-cent range — the week’s tightest — and the Rand actually closed slightly stronger at R16.0250. The tariffs had been telegraphed over the weekend, giving markets time to price them in before the Monday open.
Sometimes the worst-case scenario being confirmed is less damaging than the uncertainty that preceded it.
🟡 Tuesday, 24 February — SOTU Night
Tuesday brought the week’s most theatrically significant event...
...the State of the Union address.
By all accounts, it was the longest SOTU in American history — an address in which President Trump doubled down on tariffs, framed the trade deficit as a national emergency, and gave markets little reason to expect any softening of his protectionist stance.
USD/ZAR spiked briefly to a high of R16.0522 during the session — a hint of tariff anxiety — before pulling back. By close, the Rand was actually slightly stronger on the day at R15.9791.
Also Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) came in at 91.2, beating expectations. The US consumer isn’t panicking yet. The labour market remains resilient, and the tariff impact on household sentiment has been more muted than many forecasters expected.
A second consecutive day of Rand strength despite global headwinds.
The pattern was establishing itself: global noise, Rand resisting. Something was changing the underlying calculus...
...and on Wednesday, we found out what.
📰 And in other news...
Gold Holds Near $5,000
Following last week’s historic breakout above the $5,000/oz mark, gold continued to hold the level through the week. The safe-haven bid is persistent — and for South Africa, which remains one of the world’s significant gold producers, elevated gold prices provide a quiet tailwind beneath the currency story.
China-SA CAEPA — Background Tailwind
South Africa’s comprehensive trade agreement with China (signed in early February) continues to work in the background. Lower barriers on SA agricultural and manufactured exports into China support the medium-term trade balance case for the Rand. These structural tailwinds don’t move the currency on a daily basis — but they matter for the direction over months.
Middle East — Background Pressure
The week’s Budget focus didn’t silence the geopolitical noise. Beneath the fiscal headlines, a different story was building — and by Friday evening, it would overtake everything else.
By the time the Budget was being delivered on Wednesday, the US had been quietly moving assets into the region for weeks. Two carrier strike groups in the Gulf. B-52 strategic bombers moved to Diego Garcia. Patriot missile batteries reinforced across GCC states. The Pentagon called it “defensive repositioning.” CENTCOM had no comment on timelines — which, in that part of the world, is itself a statement.
The stated trigger: Iran’s accelerating nuclear programme — enrichment levels that US intelligence had assessed as weeks, not months, from weapons-grade. Diplomatic back-channels had gone quiet.
But the strategic question being asked in every capital that week was the same one: Was this leverage — or was it something more?
The US has used military positioning to extract concessions before. A show of force, a round of sanctions tightening, a quiet diplomatic resolution. That playbook has worked. But the regime in Tehran had been in place since 1979 — 47 years of surviving every version of external pressure the West had applied. It had outlasted eight US presidents. It had crushed the 2009 Green Movement. It had put down the 2019 protests with lethal force — an estimated 1,500 killed.
And then December 2025. Iran’s currency collapsed. Demonstrations began on 28 December and spread rapidly across the country — what human rights groups called the largest uprising since the revolution itself. The regime’s response was documented in real time. Massacres on 8 and 9 January drove the death toll into the thousands.
By 23 February — the Monday that opened this review’s first trading session — HRANA, the Iranian human rights organisation, had published a named list of 7,007 documented deaths. Broader independent estimates ran considerably higher (some running into tens of thousands).
An estimated 51,000 protesters had been arrested. Courts were issuing death sentences throughout February.
A regime that had just killed 7,007 documented citizens in the two months leading up to this edition was not — by any reading — one that backs down from carrier groups.
By late February, the market had quietly started to price it differently. Oil hadn’t spiked — but it hadn’t eased either. Gold at $5,000 didn’t get there on Budget optimism alone. The USD’s steady safe-haven premium? Same story.
The market was saying something, even if no one was saying it loudly.
Either way, the market was pricing in an answer arriving sooner rather than later.
As it turned out — Friday evening.
See: After the Bell, below.
To get back to the Rand...
🟢 Wednesday, 25 February — The Budget Delivers
Wednesday was the week’s defining session...
...and it will be remembered as one of the better Budget days in recent memory.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the 2026 National Budget — and in the current environment, with the IMF having explicitly said last week that SA needed to demonstrate fiscal credibility, it landed well.
Here’s what was delivered — and why it mattered:
No VAT increase. The proposed 0.5% VAT hike — R20 billion in additional annual revenue — had been floated in pre-Budget commentary for weeks. It was withdrawn. Not postponed. Withdrawn. For consumers and businesses already managing elevated costs, this was meaningful.
No income or corporate tax increases. The structure that businesses and individuals plan around didn’t get more expensive on Wednesday.
Debt-to-GDP stabilising. The headline that the IMF had flagged, the rating agencies watch, and the bond market prices — South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stop rising. For the first time in 17 years. That’s not a small thing. Government debt had been on a relentless upward trajectory since 2009. A credible stabilisation path changes the medium-term story.
Primary surplus path maintained. Revenue slightly ahead of projections. Some expenditure discipline. Not a dramatic fiscal pivot — but a credible continuation of the trajectory that began to take shape over the last two budget cycles.
The bond market reacted immediately. Yields fell. The Rand strengthened.
USD/ZAR opened the morning session at R15.9663, briefly touched R15.9891 in the pre-budget hours, then dropped hard when the speech began — trading through R15.87, then R15.85, before settling at a week low of R15.8305.
Close: R15.8449. The Rand’s strongest close of the week.
(The last time a Budget Speech produced this kind of unambiguous Rand strength? Worth noting — because they mostly don’t.)
🔴 Thursday, 26 February — The Retracement
After any sharp move, there’s a retracement...
...and Thursday provided it in full.
With no major SA data on the calendar, the session was driven by global flows and the natural digestion of Wednesday’s Budget move. Traders who had positioned short USD/ZAR into the Budget took profits. Some who had been caught on the wrong side covered and re-established. And a broadly stronger US dollar mid-session added to the pressure.
USD/ZAR opened at R15.8630 — a small gap up from Wednesday’s close — and climbed steadily through the morning to a high of R16.0052. At that point, the currency had reclaimed almost all of Wednesday’s intraday losses in a matter of hours.
By close, some of the overshoot had reversed: R15.9447.
The 17.2-cent range was the widest of the week — a direct reflection of how much positioning had shifted around Wednesday’s move, and how that positioning continued to unwind.
This pattern is worth understanding: a sharp move on meaningful news is almost always followed by a day of higher volatility and partial retracement as the market finds the new equilibrium. The Budget news didn’t change. The Rand’s improved fundamental picture didn’t change. But the path to the new pricing level isn’t clean — and Thursday’s session was the price discovery that follows a major catalyst.
🟡 Friday, 27 February — PCE Holds the Rand Back
Friday brought the week’s final major data point: US PCE inflation.
January 2026 core PCE came in at 3.0% — still a full percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. For a market that had been pricing in three rate cuts this year, the reading confirmed there is no near-term window. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, consistently elevated, keeps “higher for longer” firmly in place.
USD/ZAR briefly tested above R16.00 on the PCE data — but the Rand held.
That’s the story of the second half of the week: the Budget’s positive fiscal narrative is providing a floor. Where previous risk-off news this year had pushed USD/ZAR above R16.20 (in January), the new context post-Budget means R16.00 is now acting as resistance rather than support.
For a week that opened with Trump’s 15% tariff, featured the longest SOTU in US history, and is closing with hot inflation data from the world’s largest economy — the Rand’s performance has been solid.
⚠️ After the Bell — Friday 27 February
I was putting the finishing touches on this edition as the Rand closed on Friday afternoon.
Then Friday evening happened.
Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran — confirmed over the weekend as Operation “Epic Fury” — began Friday evening. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed. Iran’s Chief of Staff and former president Ahmadinejad were also among the dead. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones fired across seven countries in the region — Israel, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia.
When the Rand market reopened on Monday 2 March, USD/ZAR was trading approximately 21 cents higher — from Friday’s close near R15.90 to an opening print around R16.11.
The Budget’s improved fundamental story didn’t disappear. But it was no longer the only story in the room.
📊 Volatility & Risk Analysis
Here’s how the volatility played out this week:
• Weekly Move: R16.0521 → ~R15.97 — ~8.5c Rand STRONGER
• Weekly Range (High–Low): R16.0613 (Mon) to R15.8305 (Wed) — 23.1c — Risk per $1M: R231,000
• Widest Single-Day Range: Thursday 17.2c — Risk per $1M: R172,000
• Biggest Single-Day Move: Wednesday –12.1c (Budget) — Risk per $1M: R121,000
• Average Daily Range: ~13.8c — Risk per $1M: ~R138,000/day
Daily Range — USD/ZAR (cents)
| Mon 23 Feb | 11.0c | |
| Tue 24 Feb | 11.9c | |
| Wed 25 Feb | 15.9c | |
| Thu 26 Feb | 17.2c | |
| Fri 27 Feb | 13.1c |
Green = Budget-day Rand surge • Navy = Widest retracement range (Thu)
| Day | Range | R Risk per $1M |
|---|---|---|
| Monday 23 Feb | 11.0c | R110,000 |
| Tuesday 24 Feb | 11.9c | R119,000 |
| Wednesday 25 Feb (Budget) | 15.9c | R159,000 |
| Thursday 26 Feb | 17.2c | R172,000 |
| Friday 27 Feb | 13.1c | R131,000 |
| Average Daily | ~13.8c | ~R138,000 |
For a business managing $1 million in USD obligations, this week’s average daily range represented approximately R138,000 in daily exposure from intraday movement alone. Wednesday’s Budget session — 15.9 cents across the day — carried R159,000 in swing risk.
The most instructive data point: Thursday’s 17.2-cent range was the widest of the week — not Wednesday’s Budget day. The volatility wasn’t the catalyst; it was the reaction to the catalyst the following day. That’s typical. The sharp directional move happens on the event. The largest intraday swings often come in the 24 hours after.
“Manage the timing of your exposures...not the direction.”
📅 The Week Ahead (2–6 March 2026)
The week ahead has one dominant story — as you will have seen above. The geopolitical picture has reset. Budget follow-through, NFP, and tariff watch all remain relevant; the Iran situation is now the primary driver.
⚠️ Iran/Middle East: The dominant macro driver for the week of 2–6 March. Oil spike. USD safe-haven bid. ZAR opened ~21c weaker on Monday morning. Full coverage in next week’s edition.
SA: Bond market and ratings agency response to Budget primary surplus path • Any Treasury commentary on Budget implementation • SA trade data (if scheduled)
US: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon 2 March) • Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri 6 March) • Fed speakers responding to Friday’s hot PCE
Tariff watch: Section 122 legal challenges expected — 150-day statutory limit and balance-of-payments justification contested
The Budget story didn’t disappear. But the geopolitical reset that happened over the weekend has established a new context — one where risk appetite, oil prices, and the USD safe-haven bid are now the primary forces moving the Rand.
More on that in next week’s edition.
To round off...
It was a week where South Africa’s own story won.
The week opened with Trump’s 15% tariff reminding markets that the global backdrop is here to stay. It closed with US PCE confirming that the Fed isn’t cutting rates any time soon. In between, there was a SOTU that doubled down on protectionism and a Thursday that gave back most of Wednesday’s gains.
And yet.
The Rand ended the week approximately 8.5 cents stronger than it opened — because of 30 minutes on a Wednesday afternoon in Cape Town.
Finance Minister Godongwana delivered a Budget the market could believe in: no new taxes, debt stabilising, primary surplus path intact. The credibility the IMF had said SA needed — delivered on the day.
For subscribers who use our forecasting to time their forex exposures: Wednesday was a day to watch. Events like Wednesday’s Budget — where a single session moves the currency 12 cents in one direction — are exactly the scenarios where having context and a position in advance makes the difference.
We’ll be following the post-Budget story closely over the coming weeks.
To your success~
James Paynter
P.S. One number that didn’t make the headlines but is worth holding in mind:
South Africa’s government debt-to-GDP is now projected to stabilise at around 77% of GDP — for the first time in 17 years.
Compare that to the US: the Congressional Budget Office projects US federal debt approaching 107% of GDP in 2026 — and continuing to climb.
Two governments. Opposite debt trajectories.
One currency had a very good week.
(We covered the US fiscal story in detail in this month’s Market Demystifier — the balance sheet analysis that frames everything from tariffs to Treasury yields. If you haven’t had a chance to read it, context like this changes how you read weeks like this one.)
“When sentiment and cycles align...
...the headlines become noise.
This week proved it again.”
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Flying Blind Is Costly
This week proved once again that markets move in cycles, not linear economist logic.
While mainstream analysts were celebrating Tuesday's Dow record, our forecast system was already signaling the Rand would push through R17 before reversing...
...and it delivered, hitting R16.95 - dead centre of our predicted 17.08-16.89 range...
...before losing 25 cents in a classic reversal.
That's not luck.
That's systematic forecasting based on a combination of sentiment cycles, Elliott Wave, momentum, wave ratios & relationship studies, momentum and supply & demand...
...the same system that's kept us and our clients ahead of the curve for years.
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To your success~
James Paynter
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