Welcome to our latest Weekly Rand Review...I would like to know what you think of it!
Ever been to the beach on a day when the sea looks so inviting and safe...
...only to find that under the surface there are some significant riptides that drag you away from the safe zone...
...or even worse, can drag you out to sea?
That was the Rand this week.
If you looked at it over the week, it seemed like nothing really happened. Despite all that was going on: Trump cranking steel tariffs to 50%. The Fed stumbling around like they lost their GPS in downtown Joburg. And to top it all, Iran got some very surprise 'gate-crashers' at their three nuclear facilities.
And our beloved Rand? Moved a whopping 3 cents for the entire week.
But here's the sneaky part.
Under that calm surface, the Rand was actually bouncing around like a ping pong ball in a washing machine...
...big moves up, big moves down.
Actually more volatile than we have seen in a while:
Monday kicked off with the week with an SA holiday. But even with thin liquidity, the Rand put in a 25 cent range — a surprising amount of action for a market that looked like it was treading water. The pair tested both support and resistance, but neither gave way.
Tuesday brought even more energy, with the Rand swinging 29 cents during the day. Traders were positioning for the Fed, while local flows remained subdued. Everyone was waiting for the central bank playbook to be revealed midweek.
Wednesday was the big Fed day. The U.S. held rates steady as expected, but Powell’s tone left markets more puzzled than reassured (while Trump's response was anything but complimentary). Despite all the noise, the Rand stuck to its zigzag pattern, dancing in an elevated range.
Thursday saw Trump's tariff escalation hit the headlines. Steel and aluminium duties were doubled to 50%...but markets barely flinched. Emerging market currencies, including the Rand, seemed immune — either from fatigue or expectation. The Rand nudged the R18.15 resistance but was swatted back down.
Friday was a tug-of-war between month-end flows and caution. Local corporates stepped in to square up, while global traders stayed light ahead of the weekend. The range narrowed, but support and resistance zones remained untouched. The Rand closed the week barely 3 cents weaker from Monday’s open.
![Graph Image: Hidden Rip-tides Beneath Calm Rands - June 23, 2025](/images/Hidden%20Rip-tides%20Beneath%20Calm%20Rand%20Waters%2020250625.png")
And then, of course...
...we had the surprise military action over the weekend by the USA in taking out Iran's three nuclear facilities, with Trump immediately calling for peace.
And while everyone was frenzied about this escalating into a wider war with boots on the ground, it seems that instead we are looking at peace.
After decades of warnings about Iran being just months away from having a nuclear weapon, a US President has actually done something about it to completely take away the threat—and the need for war.
Another 4D chess move?
So, quite a week!
But not much to show for it as far as the Rand was concerned.
However, here's what most people overlook:
Even though the Rand barely moved across the week, those sharp daily swings were anything but trivial — they were the kind of moves that could hand you a tidy windfall…
...or leave you licking your wounds, depending on where you stood.
On average the daily swings were 22 cents (or 1.2%)...
...with a weekly range of 43 cents (2.4%).
Enough to make a serious impression on your profit margin either way — based on when you acted.
Which means that in this game, you need to understand where the market is heading over your exposure period — as well as your decision window.
Timing is everything!
History teaches us that trends don't last for ever - just like the tides.
And neither do trading ranges — like a lazy cat lulling you into thinking all is calm…
...until the claws come out.
Those that have been around long enough know that what worked last year or last month, could hurt you badly this next month or year.
Because trends don't last forever (from yearly trends, to monthly, weekly, daily—even down to hours, minutes or seconds).
And neither do trading ranges as we saw this past week.
That is why you need a dynamic and forward-looking hedging and execution strategy.
One that gives you a heads-up about that possible shift just around the corner...
..so when the trend breaks, you have already made plans to adjust your strategy.
Not scrambling to catch up after the storm hits.
That's exactly why we created the Rand Forecasting System—which has helped thousands of exporters and importers as well as multi-nationals over the past two decades.
It gives you the roadmap for what's likely coming next before it happens, and provides the framework for a dynamic hedging strategy that adjusts for the changing trends...
...complete with price targets, timing, and backup plans if our main outlook gets proved wrong.
Question is: Are you still sticking with a strategy that worked before, but is causing you sleepless nights the past while?
If so, I would love to chat and show you what is possible...
Hit the reply button and let's book some time.
To your success~
James Paynter
P.S. I decided to do something different this week. How do you like it compared with our standard Weekly Rand Review?
And by the way, we have some announcements coming regarding our service that we believe will cause a buzz...in a good way. Watch this space.
To get a look at the latest forecasts, use the link below:
Click here to view the latest forecasts
If you have any questions or feedback, please leave them below.
To your success~
James Paynter
P.S. Having a rough time with the market's moves? Feel free to book a call. I would love to see how we could help with your present strategy - and save you some time, stress and money in the process.
Got any questions? Here's what to do:
2. Call us on 087 551 2848
3. Chat with us using our Whatsapp chat
P.P.S Want some insights as to where the Rand is likely to move - enabling you to make educated and informed decisions - ahead of time?
Take our Rand Forecasting service for a test-drive using the link below
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